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Foreign Exchange Market Update

July 26, 2016

Indicative Interbank spot sell rates only as of 9:00 AM PST.

United States (US) July 27 FOMC statement will be released, but still no firm guidance that another rate hike is around the corner. The Fed may want to keep its options open, including waiting longer as it watches data carefully. There is expectation, the statement will take note of the better data recently, including consumption and housing data, which are powering ahead; the exception is corporate investment, which is still fragile. On another note, home prices fell in May for the 2nd consecutive month, compared to market expectations for a slight increase. Over the past year and a half home prices are still rising steadily, around 5% year-over-year. On another note, Consumers Confidence came out to 97.3, is still above its three month average of 95.7.
Australia’s dollar traded at 75.12U.S. Cents at 10:52 AM PST and New Zealand dollar traded at 70.41 U.S. cents. Consumer confidence survey shows a slight improvement in the index by 0.5 to 115.5 for July. Despite the minor improvement in consumer confidence, ANZ points out that current finances indicators dipped by 5.3% over the past five weeks. It suggested “heightened uncertainty and possibly the slowdown in employment growth have weight on household sentiment.” On another note, New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$127 million in June, The headline figure missed expectations for a surplus of NZ$150 million and was down from NZ$358 million in May. Exports came in at NZ$4.26 billion, beating forecasts for NZ$4.22 billion and down from NZ$4.57 billion in the previous month. Imports were at NZ$4.13 billion – matching forecasts and down from NZ$4.22 billion a month earlier.
Japanese Yen traded at 104.68 per USD at 10:52am PST. Japan is looking to double direct spending in stimulus package. Japan's government is likely to inject 6 trillion yen ($57 billion) in direct fiscal outlays into the economy over the next few years under a planned stimulus package, double the amount initially planned, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday. Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters the government is still debating the size of stimulus spending but hopes to make a decision soon. BoJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting next week on July 28-29.

Onshore Chinese yuan traded at 6.6690 per USD at 10:53 am PST and offshore Chinese yuan traded at 6.6791 per USD. The yuan gained for a fourth day versus a basket of currencies, the longest run since May, after the central bank said it will keep the exchange rate stable. The People’s Bank of China will work hard to keep the yuan stable against a basket of currencies. The yuan halted a six-week run of losses last week on speculation authorities were stabilizing the exchange rate.
This market update is prepared by Cathay Bank for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of legal, tax or investment advice, nor should it be considered an assurance or guarantee of future exchange rate movements or trends. This information is provided without regard to the specific objectives, financial situations or needs of any recipient. Cathay Bank does not make any representations or warranties about the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of this market update.




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