Novedades sobre el Intercambio Extranjero (en Inglés)
May 21, 2019
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United States (US): OECD Trims Global Growth Outlook on Trade Disputes, Existing Home Sales Fell Unexpectedly
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered the 2019 global growth outlook as escalating trade disputes hurt manufacturing and investment decisions. OECD forecast 3.2% growth for 2019 versus 3.3% estimated in March. The global growth outlook for 2020 was retained at 3.4%. According to OECD, vulnerabilities stem from trade tensions, high policy uncertainty, risks in financial markets and a slowdown in China. The biggest threat is the escalation of trade-restrictive measures. The OECD cautioned that current growth rates are insufficient to bring about major improvements in employment or living standards.
The OECD forecast the US economic growth at 2.8% in 2019, which was seen slowing to 2.3% in 2020. In March, the OECD had forecast 2.6% growth for this year and 2.2% in 2020. Growth in the Eurozone is seen at 1.2% this year and 1.4% next year. Both figures were revised up by 0.2%. UK GDP is forecast to climb 1.2% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. The 2019 estimate was revised up from 0.8% and that for 2020 from 0.9%. Sharper slowdown than already seen in China would pose important risks to both global growth and trade prospects. China's growth is expected to ease to 6.2% in 2019 and to 6% next year. These rates were left unchanged.
US existing home sales fell unexpectedly by 0.4% to an annual rate of 5.19 million in April after plunging by 4.9% to a rate of 5.21 million in March, it was expected existing home sales to jump 2.7% to a rate of 5.35 million.
Australia: RBA Chief Hints Rate Cut in June and by End of Year
Australian dollar traded at 68.77 U.S. cents at 9:00 am PST
RBA Governor Lowe signaled an interest rate cut in June to underpin growth in employment. Lowe said, "A lower cash rate would support employment growth and bring forward the time when inflation is consistent with the target." At the May board meeting, policymakers assessed that inflation was likely to remain low relative to the target and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate. Lowe said the Australian economy can support an unemployment rate of below 5% without raising inflation concerns. The minutes of the May meeting showed that financial market pricing implied that the cash rate was expected to be lowered by 0.25% within the next three months and again by the end of 2019.
United Kingdom (UK): May Offered a Chance to Vote for Second Referendum
British Pound traded at 1.2756 against USD at 9:00 am PST.
GBP fell in late morning amid deep divisions over whether the government should opt for no-deal Brexit, if PM May couldn't pass her Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) through Parliament next month. While Commons leader Leadsom suggested the UK must be "prepared to walk away," Hammond is set to warn that "all the preparation in the world will not avoid the consequences of no deal."
As part of attempts to persuade Parliament to back the Brexit deal, May offered lawmakers the chance to vote on whether to hold a new referendum, only if they back her Brexit deal. May said the bill would include "a requirement to vote on whether to hold a second referendum and this must take place before the Withdrawal Agreement can be ratified." May continued, "If MPs vote against ... this bill, they are voting to stop Brexit."
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