Novedades sobre el Intercambio Extranjero (en Inglés)
May 3, 2016
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United States (US) manufacturing sector expanded in April but at a slower pace than the previous month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 50.8 from 51.8 the month before. The reading was below expectations of 51.4. The employment index rose to 49.2 from 48.1 a month earlier. Expectations called for a reading of 49.0. New orders dropped to 55.8 from 58.3. The prices paid index rose to 59.0 from 51.5, compared to expectations of 52.0.
Australia’s dollar traded at 74.87 U.S. cents at 11:44 AM PST and New Zealand dollar traded at 69.13 U.S. cents. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate to 1.75%, an historic low. In the accompanying monetary policy statement, the board presented a mixed picture on the state of the Australian economy, with the language towards inflation noticeably more dovish than what was seen in prior months courtesy of last Wednesday’s incredibly low consumer price inflation print. On inflation, the board stated that recent data was “unexpectedly low”. Beyond the inflation outlook, the tone of the statement expressed a cautious optimism towards the outlook for the domestic economy. “Indications are that growth is continuing in 2016, though probably at a more moderate pace.” The board suggested that the “prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting”. Although absent of a clear easing bias — something that indicates further policy easing may arrive in the period ahead — it’s not unusual for the RBA to not provide such guidance in the immediate aftermath of a rate cut. As a consequence, the most keenly eyed piece of next month’s monetary policy statement will be to see whether the board will retain a clear easing bias. On another note, the total number of building approvals issued in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 3.7% on month in March. That beat forecasts for a decline of 2.0% following the 3.1% gain in February. On a yearly basis, consents fell 6.5% - also beating expectations for a decline of 14.0% following the 9.0% contraction in the previous month.
Euro traded at 1.1514 against USD at 11:44 am PST. The European Commission lowered its growth and inflation forecast for the 19-nation eurozone and the wider European Union. In its 2016 spring forecast, the commission projected that Gross Domestic Product growth in the euro area would remain “modest” at 1.6% this year — down from 1.7% in 2015 and below 1.7%growth it forecast in February. In a statement, the commission attributed the bleaker forecast to prevailing weakness in global growth as well as to risks and uncertainty associated with the looming Brexit referendum. “Global factors have been the driving force behind recent inflation developments and are expected to remain so in the near term. External price pressures continued to weaken in the first months of 2016. This mirrors the sharp fall in energy prices during the same period which has had an impact across global supply chains. In tandem, a major factor holding down global producer prices is the overcapacity in several emerging market economies, particularly China,” the commission said in its report. On another note, Eurozone PPI mom posted a gain of 0.3%, beating the estimate of 0.0% and higher than the previous -0.7%. While Eurozone PPI yoy remained at -4.2%.
British Pound exchange rate is 1.4542 against USD at 11:44 am PST. The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2 last month, compared with a downwardly revised 50.7 reading in March and analysts' expectations for a 51.2 reading. The figure marked the first time the UK construction sector has fallen below the 50 threshold, since March 2013. Markit indicated the headline index was dragged lower by lackluster trends in production, as well as new orders and declines in both employment and stocks of purchases, while the decline in the manufacturing sector was mainly felt in the consumer and investment goods industry. The intermediate goods sector managed to sustain growth of output and new order inflows, although rates of expansion were weaker than those registered in March.
Onshore Chinese yuan traded at 6.4900 per USD at 11:43 am PST and offshore Chinese yuan traded at 6.4956 per USD. The manufacturing sector in China remained in contraction in April, and at an accelerated pace, with a Performance of Manufacturing Index score of 49.4. That missed forecasts for 49.8, and it was down from 49.7 in March. It also moved further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50. Among the individual components of the survey, output was little-changed from the previous month, as total new orders stagnated and new export work fell for the fifth month in a row. Relatively weak market conditions and muted client demand contributed to a further solid decline in staff numbers.
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